UPDATED: 7/9/19
Tournament: John Deere Classic | Location: Sillvis, IL
Course: TPC Deere Run | Par: 71 | Distance: 7,268 Yards
Greens: Bentgrass | Fairways: Bentgrass | Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass
Bunkers: 78 | Water Hazards: 4
Field: 156 |Cut: Top 70 and Ties
Designer/Architect: D.A. Weibring c.1999
General Notes:
- 2018 Difficulty: 46/51 – Scoring Avg: 69.37 (-1.63)
- Eagles: 45 (6th most)
- Birdies: 1,865 (3rd most)
- Bogeys: 957 (32nd Most)
- We’ve seen a 59 shot by Paul Goydos in the same year Steve Striker won shooting a 60 in the same round (2010)
- Molinari last year on Tuesday before tournament in 2018 before his T2 finish:
- “Obviously you can see few birdies out there if you play well. But, yeah, it’s a good course. You need to hit the ball well off the tee. Few tight holes. A lot have run-off areas around the greens. I think the premium is going to be on ball striking.”
- Ryan Moore in 2017:
- “That’s what you have to do at this tournament. I think I shot three straight 66s here the first three rounds last year; that’s what you got to do. Course is in great shape. Greens are perfect. Got to go out there and make good shots and you got to make birdie.”
- Weibring emphasized risk/reward challenge in his design
- Hole-by-Hole Breakdown: TPC Deere Run
- Weather: Colona (~4mi East of Course)
- Injury Report: List
Not Playing/WD:
- Corey Conners
- Kevin Na
- Morgan Hoffman
- Chris Couch
- Brian Davis
- Jason Kokrak
- Kevin Streelman
Primary Stats:
- SG: APP
- BoB Gained
- Opps Gained
- SG: Par 5
Power Rankings (Stats I ALWAYS look at every tournament)
- SG: T2G
- SG: BS
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: APP
- BoB Gained
- SG: P
Course Preview:
Howzit golf fans, Reid Fowler here in the D-K Live studios for The John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. After a couple of new stops in Detroit and last week in Minnesota, the tour gets back to a familiar stop on the schedule in Silvis, Illinois, which has played host to the John Deere since 2000.
Similar to last year, Deere Run will be played the right before the Open Championship, which routinely results in one of the weaker fields all season. There are precious Fed-Ex points still up for grabs, this is what drove Francesco Molinari in 2018 to play and win at the Quicken Loans last season AND place runner up here in 2018. This is why we’ll see golfers like Kevin Streelman, Charles Howell III, and recent winner, Matt Wolff along with his O-S-U teammate, Viktor Hovland teeing it up this week – we should be expecting another scattered leaderboard with some names most people are not used to seeing. Other notables in the field include Luke Donald, Ryan Moore, Sungjae Im, and TPC Deere Run’s number one strokes gained golfer since 2014, Zach Johnson.
Deere Run should be a birdie-fest this week – over the last 10 years, the winning score has eclipsed the 20-under mark 8 times with Michael Kim shooting a 27-under last year. In 2018, the tournament recorded the 6th most eagles and 3rd most birdies on tour and ranked as the 6th easiest course by scoring average so key stats are birdies or better gained and approach, where the top-five have gained 3-times as many strokes with their irons over their tee shots.
Joel Dahmen will be my favorite play this week. Even though he’s already qualified for the Open next week, he’ll want to get some competitive rounds under his belt at Deere Run where he’s had some success. Along with a runner up in 2018, he’ll rely on his iron play and ability to score – over the last 24 rounds he’s 21st in strokes gained approach, 15th in birdies or better gained, and third in opportunities gained.
Tournament Betting Card:
NOTE: Odds may be subject to change depending on what books you use and when you submit your betting card. Please bet responsibly and within your budget and bankroll.
Joel Dahmen 90/1
Cameron Tringale 90/1
Tyrone Van Aswegen 300/1 (EW)
FRL:
Joel Dahmen 70/1
Cameron Tringale 80/1
Tyrone Van Aswegen 175/1
Gup’s Corner OAD: Joel Dahmen
DraftKings Picks:
NOTE: Stats are all from last 24 rounds unless noted otherwise. Odds may be subject to change depending on what books you use and when you submit your betting card.
Strategy:
Roster Construction: None
Tee Stacks: None
Elite $10K+ Range:
Matt Wolff – DK: $10,500 | Odds: 22/1 | Own: 10% | Tee Draw (TR/FRI): AM/PM
Going back to the ‘pack’ man this week even coming off a win a few days ago at 3M. It’ll be easy to gloss over a recent winner, especially someone who’s won this early and may not be used to the spotlight, but Wolff has been (and relishes in) said spotlight. Over the last six months, he’s been on fire in the NCAA’s and now on the PGA tour. These rookies like Viktor Hovland ($10,900) and Colin Morikawa ($10,700) are more ready than ever and have more energy to keep up the great golf they’ve been playing over the last month. Wolff is still striking it and he’s looking to either qualify for The Open next week or keep on earning Fed Ex points and cashing checks. He might not win again this week, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he nabs another top-10 and joins one of his NCAA fraternity in the top-5.
Friends: Viktor Hovland ($10,900)
Fades: Colin Morikawa ($10,700), Kevin Streelman ($10,000)
$9-10K Range
Sam Burns – DK: $9,100 | Odds: 45/1 | Own: 11-13% | Tee Draw (TR/FRI): PM/AM
If you’ve been following this ole’ thread, you know how much I’ve been on Burns and he almost delivered last week. Now he’s VERY expensive, not only because of his recent success, but because of how weak the JD Classic is this year. An increase of $2K over his average price from the last five tournaments may move would be owners off of Burns and move to a more recognizable name like Ryan Moore ($9,200) above him or go down to Kyle Stanley ($8,800). As you all know, we like to chase ball strikers who could happen upon an average putting week as opposed to their weekly struggles on the greens, but it’s the opposite with Burns – he ranks 12th in SG: P over the last half-dozen tournaments and 5th over the last 100 rounds. BUT, he’s not only the favorite with the flatstick, he’s also obliterating par-fives ranking first over the last 24 rounds.
Friends: Charles Howell III ($9,500)
Fades: Lucas Glover ($9,800)
$8-9K Range:
Joel Dahmen – DK: $8,400 | 90/1 | Own: 13% | Tee Draw (TR/FRI): AM/PM
Seems he should be priced higher in this tournament, but we get him at a discount in Silvis and we should jump on it ASAP. Even though he’s qualified for The Open, even though he’s not striping it perfectly, and even though the par-five scoring isn’t elite, he’s going to be my pick to win. He’ll want to get some competitive rounds under his belt at Deere Run where he’s had some success – along with a runner up in 2018, he’ll rely on his iron play and ability to score – over the last 24 rounds he’s 21st in strokes gained approach, 15th in birdies or better gained, and third in opportunities gained.
Friends: Scott Brown ($8,300)
Fades: Kevin Tway ($8,900)
$7-8K Range
Danny Lee – DK: $7,400 | 100/1 | Own: % | Tee Draw (TR/FI): PM/AM
Really liked Cameron Tringale ($7,700) and Vaughn Taylor ($7,700) yesterday, but their ownership is skyrocketing – I’ll be shifting some of those shares (maybe all) to Danny Lee (again) this week. I liked him last week, but he just could not find the cup losing close to four strokes on the greens. He ranked inside the top-10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and inside the top-15 last week at the 3M, just needs to get the putter going a little.
Friends: Cameron Tringale ($7,700), Troy Merrit ($7,500)
Fades: Sepp Straka ($7,300)
Sub $7K Range:
Tyrone Van Aswegen – DK: $6,300 | 300/1 | Own: 1% | Tee Draw (TR/FRI): AM/PM
We’re going really deep here cause why the F not?! Deere Run can propel guys like Michael Kim ($6,400) to the winner’s circle who hadn’t shown any current or long for success (MC in six of seven tournaments before winning in 2018). Enter: TVA.
Aswegen hasn’t been great and ranks near the bottom in BoB Gained and SG: Par-five so this may be a punt if there every was one. BUT, over the past 24 rounds he’s been ELITE with his irons ranking 21st and is only getting better ranking 2nd over the last 12 rounds, 3rd over the last eight rounds, and seventh in the four rounds. He also has top finishes at Silverado (Safeway Open) placing third in 2015 and 9th in 2017.
Friends: Peter Uihlien ($6,900), Roberto Castro ($6,700), Trey Mulliax ($6,700), Sam Saunders ($6,600)
Aloha!
Reid
@reidtfowler 