UPDATED: 7/1/19
Tournament: 3M Open | Location: Blaine, MN
Course: TPC Twin Cities | Par: 71 | Distance: 7,468-7,481 Yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Field: 156 |Cut: Top 70 and Ties
Sand: 74 | Water Hazards: 27 (bodies of water)
Designer/Architect: Arnold Palmer c.1999/2000 | Consultation: Tom Lehman c.2018
General Notes:
- Has hosted the 3M Open on the Champions Tour from 2001 to 2018. Over the last five years (2014-2018), the winner scores have been: 23-under, 18-under, 19-under, 20-under, 21-underKenny Perry (3x Winner), Bernhard Langer (2x winner)
- Arnold Palmer (Design Company) has created more than 300 of the world’s most eminent golf layouts
- Superintendent, Mark Michalski, says “Course was built as a links-style course with a lot of native grass, some trees, not a lot, but more built as a ‘prairie/linksy’ type of course”. – 2016Built on sand and can dry out really easily with some good winds, even if they get rain that night.
- 27 bodies of water on course – 10+ holes will feature water in play
- Hole-by-Hole Breakdown: TPC Twin Cities | Flyover: TPC Twin Cities
- Weather: Blaine/Anoka County Airport (~4.5mi South of course))
- Injury Report: List
Not Playing/WD:
- Vaughn Taylor
- Jim Herman
- David Lingmerth
- David Berganio, Jr.
Arnold Palmer Courses – Tournaments
- Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Ireland’s K Club – 2006 Ryder Cup
Primary Stats:
- SG: BS
- SG: Par 5
- BoB Gained
- Opps Gained
Power Rankings (Stats I ALWAYS look at every tournament)
- SG: T2G
- SG: BS
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: APP
- BoB Gained
- SG: P
Course Preview:
Howzit golf fans, Reid Fowler here for The 3M Open located at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. The course will play as a par 71, measures close to 7,500 yards, and will be the first time Minnesota gets a regular PGA Tour event since the Minnesota Golf Classic back in 1969.
The late Arnold Palmer, with help from Tom Lehman as a player consultant, design and open this course back in 2000 and has hosted this tournament on the Champions Tour from 2001 up until last year. Routinely considered as one of the top spots on the PGA Champions Tour, we’ve seen winning scores in the minus-18 to minus 21 range over the last five years with players like Kenny Perry winning three times and Bernhard Langer winning twice in the tournaments history.
3M will get a couple of elite players making their way to the land of 10,000 lakes like Brooks Koepka, hoping to improve his “non-major” track record, social media star, Phil Mickelson, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, and Jason Day. There are no past winners here, obviously, but recent winner of the first Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, Nate Lashley, is in the field as of this moment. Fantastic win for a guy who deserved it. Other than a few top names teeing it up here, we’ll see another weak field, which should again allow for a fairly wide open tournament as the vast majority of this field will have not played here before – guys like Ryan Moore, Tony Finau, Bryson Dechambeau, Luke List, and other notables should be licking their chops for a solid finish or a win to bolster their Fed-Ex cup standings with only 10 tournaments left in the season. Minnesota natives like Tom Lehman and Tim Herron will also get a chance to tee it up in their native state.
Twin cities should be a fairly straightforward test of golf and could be similar to what we saw last week with a slight difference in look – according to the superintendent, the course has a “links-style” aesthetic with a ton of bunkers and 27 bodies of water on the course, which should come into play on 10-plus holes. With three par-fives and two par-fours measuring under 400 yards, we should see some risk/reward shots, which could lead to low scores. We could get another birdie-fest with twin cities already showing us it’s “scorable” so birdies or better gained and strokes gained ball-striking will be some key stats I’m focusing on this week.
Bryson Dechambeau at $10,500 is one of my favorite plays this week. Dechambeau’s been all over the map with his finishes this season, but has solid finishes in his last two tournaments. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks just outside the top-20 in strokes gained ball-striking, inside the top-10 in strokes gained par-fives, and fifth in birdies or better gained.
Tournament Betting Card:
NOTE: Odds may be subject to change depending on what books you use and when you submit your betting card. Please bet responsibly and within your budget and bankroll.
Tony Finau 30/1
Danny Lee 100/1 → Top-10: 9/1 | Top-5: 18/1
Troy Merritt 110/1 → Top-10: 10/1 | Top-5: 20/1
Tom Hoge 300/1 → Top 10: 20/1 | Top 5: 20/1
FRL:
Danny Lee 90/1
Tom Hoge 150/1
Gup’s Corner OAD: Tony Finau
DraftKings Picks:
NOTE: Stats are all from last 24 rounds unless noted otherwise. Odds may be subject to change depending on what books you use and when you submit your betting card.
Strategy:
Roster Construction: None
Tee Stacks: None
Elite $10K+ Range:
Bryson Dechambeau – DK: $10,500 | Odds: 14/1 | Own: 20% | Tee Draw (TR/FRI): PM/AM
Dechambeau’s been all over the map this season, but has solid finishes in his last two tournaments. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks just outside the top-20 in strokes gained ball-striking, inside the top-10 in strokes gained par-5, and 5th in birdies or better gained. Bryson strikes me as a guy who will push on the accelerator and thrive by seeing tangible results re: gaining strokes through approach in six of his last eight rounds. He’s putting fantastic over the last three tournaments, which have been mostly on Poa, so let’s hope this move to Bent isn’t going to catapult him the other way cause he looks ready to hoist another trophy.
Friends: Brooks Koepka ($11,900), Jason Day ($10,900)
Fades: Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100) → Ownership fade
$9-10K Range
Tony Finau – DK: $9,200 | Odds: 30/1 | Own: 12% | Tee Draw (TR/FRI): AM/PM
This is bittersweet for me. Tony is finally at a price (odds especially), but more so, at an ownership which makes sense for how he’s playing. Coming off of three MCs, Finau is a tough roster at his DK price, but I’m in (like I am most of the season). His stats are nothing to love ranking 42nd in SG: BS, 110th in BoB Gained, and 93rd in opportunities gained. Simple to gloss over and roster Viktor Hovland ($9,100) or even the red-hot Kevin Streelman ($8,900), but I’m VERY interested in Tony when we get him on a course over 7,400 yards where he ranks ninth in SG: BS, 12th in BoB gained, 4th in SG: Par , and 12th in opportunities gained.
Friends: Viktor Hovland ($9,100)
Fades: Joaquin Niemann ($9,300) → Ownership fade
$8-9K Range:
Charles Howell III – DK: $8,400 | 40/1 | Own: 8% | Tee Draw (TR/FRI): PM/AM
The ownership in this range is spread out, which either means they’re all solid plays or the opposite. I’m in the camp as they’re all fairly ‘luke warm’ and CH3 would be the ‘best’ of this bunch. He’s MC in three of his last six tournaments, which is unlike Howell who is routinely considered a solid investment in making the cut. Looking closer at these early departures, Howell has been having issues with his putting losing strokes in five of his last six events. He seems to be a bit more comfortable on longer courses (over 7,400 yards) where he ranks top-50 in SG: BS and first in par-four scoring between 450 to 500 yards.
Friends: Ryan Moore ($8,700), Kevin Na ($8,600)
Fades: Keegan Bradley ($8,800)
$7-8K Range
Danny Lee – DK: $7,600 | 100/1 | Own: 5% | Tee Draw (TR/FI): AM/PM
Not always on Danny-boy, but he gets the highlight this week. He’s playing well over the last couple of tournaments and has improved every tournament in strokes gained par-fives over the last 36 all the way up to his last ranking just inside the top-40, inside the top-15/10 respectively in BoB gained over last 24 rounds to eight rounds, and 18th in opportunities gained over last 24 rounds. He’s been awful on the greens, but is hitting it close and has shown the ability to putt well, especially on Bent – his last win at the 2015 Greenbrier was on Bent where he gained over four strokes putting.
Friends: J.J. Spaun ($7,800), Jason Dufner ($7,700), Sam Burns ($7,300)
Fades: Doc Redman ($7,200)
Sub $7K Range:
Troy Merritt – DK: $6,900 | 110/1 | Own: 6% | Tee Draw (TR/FRI): PM/AM
In his last six tournaments, he’s gained an average of 6.3 strokes through approach in three (Memorial, Byron Nelson, RBC Heritage) and has lost an average of 2.17 strokes with his irons in the other three (Rocket Mortgage, Travelers, PGA Championship). Take away last week’s debacle/MC, he’s been solid with his Ball striking over the last 50 rounds ranking inside the top-35 and should be able to snag a lot of birdies at what seems to be an easy course. Also taking a look at Tom Hoge ($6,300) who ranks 13th in opportunities gained, but hasn’t been able to convert them into birdies.
Friends: Sean Stefani ($6,600), Tom Hoge ($6,300)
Good luck this week!
Aloha!
Reid
@reidtfowler 